WASHINGTON – A 43-day federal government shutdown delayed the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ scheduled October consumer price index report, officials said Thursday, prompting analysts and policymakers to rely on Federal Reserve models and private-sector trackers for the latest inflation readings.
The Cleveland Fed nowcast, according to a Fox Business report, estimated October headline CPI rose 0.18% from September and core CPI – which excludes food and energy – rose 0.25% for the month. On a 12-month basis, the nowcast put headline CPI at 2.96% and core CPI at 2.99%.
The missing official CPI release matters because it removes a primary, regularly updated gauge used by the Federal Reserve and markets to assess price pressures. The delay also jeopardizes data relied on for program calculations, including the Social Security cost-of-living adjustment, and complicates the Fed’s efforts to set interest-rate policy with full information. For broader coverage of how economic data shape policy, see our Economy Coverage.
Background
The Bureau of Labor Statistics had been scheduled to publish October CPI data on Thursday, but agency operations were disrupted during the shutdown, officials said. It remained unclear when the BLS would issue the October report or whether it would be compiled using the usual source data or with judgmental methods to fill gaps.
Federal statistical agencies have contingency procedures for interruptions. During the shutdown, agency officials said BLS staff were temporarily recalled to complete the September CPI release because that report feeds the annual Social Security cost-of-living adjustment. The COLA is based on the Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers, or CPI-W, a narrower measure than headline CPI that the Social Security Administration uses to calculate benefit increases.
Inflation has eased from a 40-year high of 9.1% in June 2022 but has moved up in recent months after reaching a low point of 2.3% in April 2025. Inflation as measured by headline or core indexes remains above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target on a monthly or annual basis at times, so timely data remain central to policy choices.
How the nowcast and other estimates work
Nowcasts are model-based estimates that use incoming partial data, high-frequency indicators and statistical relationships to fill gaps until official numbers arrive. The Cleveland Fed nowcast aggregates available price signals and other economic indicators to produce a best estimate of monthly and year-over-year CPI changes when the BLS report is missing or delayed.
Model estimates can be useful but carry additional uncertainty compared with published official statistics because they rely on assumptions about unobserved data. Private-sector models, academic nowcasts and market-based proxies each use different inputs and can produce divergent readings. Policymakers assess such outputs alongside other indicators, including personal consumption expenditures figures, payrolls, consumer surveys and financial market behavior.
Details from officials and records
- October monthly nowcast: headline CPI +0.18%, core CPI +0.25%.
- October 12-month nowcast: headline CPI +2.96%, core CPI +2.99%.
- September official CPI: both headline and core CPI were reported at 3.0% year over year.
A note circulated by economists at JPMorgan said household survey data used for the October jobs report were not collected and that CPI collection for October was interrupted. The analysts warned the October CPI might not be published because of missing source data or could be compiled using statistical judgment if needed. JPMorgan added that the September jobs report could be released within a week after the shutdown ends, while October jobs data might be issued alongside November’s report depending on when surveys resume.
Reactions and next steps
The White House press secretary said the shutdown made it extraordinarily difficult for economists, investors and Federal Reserve officials to receive timely data and warned the interruption could impair aspects of the federal statistical system unless contingency plans are strengthened.
President Donald Trump signed legislation ending the 43-day shutdown and funding the government through Jan. 30, the White House reported. Agencies have since moved to resume normal operations, but officials have not announced a timetable for publishing the October CPI or delayed jobs reports.
Markets and some economists will watch subsequent releases and Federal Reserve communications for signs of how much weight policymakers place on model estimates versus official statistics when making rate decisions. In the absence of high-frequency official data, the Fed typically considers a range of indicators and will signal how provisional estimates affected its assessment.
Analysis
The suspension of regular data releases highlights tensions between governance and economic policymaking. Reliable, timely statistics are central to the Federal Reserve’s ability to judge inflation trends and to the transparency of monetary policy. When gaps appear, the Fed and markets turn to model-based estimates and private analysis, which introduce additional uncertainty that can complicate rate-setting and communication.
For public programs, the interruption has direct fiscal consequences. The Social Security COLA depends on CPI-W values; delays or judgmental adjustments could affect benefit calculations, beneficiary payments and short-term budget planning. That raises questions about institutional resilience, legal requirements for program indexing and contingency planning for core statistical functions.
Looking ahead, officials and lawmakers face tradeoffs: resume data collection under compressed schedules, accept model-based provisional estimates, or adopt alternative methodologies for critical calculations. Each option carries risks for policy credibility, market stability and programmatic fairness, underscoring the need for clear rules and backup plans to protect key economic statistics from operational disruptions.
