Kevin Hassett, then director of the White House National Economic Council, said the United States saw its strongest online Black Friday on record and tied the surge to higher household incomes and easing inflation under President Donald Trump, according to a Fox Business report. Hassett made the remarks during a televised interview and argued that rising pay and lower inflation were encouraging Americans to return to stores and spend more over the Thanksgiving weekend.
The trend matters because consumer spending accounts for roughly two thirds of U.S. economic activity. If sustained, elevated holiday sales could boost fourth-quarter gross domestic product and federal receipts. For coverage of broader economic trends and policy implications, see our Economy Coverage.
Background
Hassett said incomes fell early in the previous administration and have increased in the period he cited, and he described recent moderation in headline inflation as supporting stronger real purchasing power. Those comments reflect his interpretation of recent labor and price data rather than a single unified measurement of household welfare.
Independent reporting and analysts have emphasized that headline spending gains can mask uneven pressures on family budgets. Coverage in business and consumer outlets has pointed to higher costs for some families related to tariffs, housing, transportation and health care, and has warned that aggregate sales totals do not show how spending is distributed across income groups.
Details from officials and records
Private analytics firms and consulting groups reported elevated online sales over the holiday weekend. Adobe Analytics said online Black Friday sales reached $11.8 billion, up 9.1 percent from a year earlier, setting a single-day online record. Thanksgiving Day online sales were reported at about $6.4 billion, and Adobe projected Cyber Monday online sales near $14.2 billion, an increase of roughly 6.3 percent from the prior year.
Separately, a Deloitte survey of holiday shoppers found higher participation but a modest pullback in planned spending per shopper. The survey reported that 82 percent of consumers planned to shop between Thanksgiving and Cyber Monday, up from 79 percent the prior year, while average planned spending per shopper fell about 4 percent to $622.
Those figures track a pattern in which more consumers shop online and across more days, boosting aggregate sales even as planned per-shopper spending varies. Retailers and analysts caution that single metrics, such as a record online day, do not by themselves measure household financial health.
Reactions and next steps
Retail groups and many executives signaled optimism about the holiday season, citing both online and in-store traffic. Several major retailers reported higher web sales and described operations that handled increased remote ordering and shipping demand.
Critics and policy analysts noted the need to separate nominal spending growth from real gains in living standards. If spending rises because wages and employment are strengthening while inflation slows, the boost is more likely to be durable. If it is driven by households drawing on savings, tapping credit, or facing higher prices in certain categories, the gains could prove temporary.
Analysts and policymakers will be watching a set of indicators over the coming months to assess durability: wage growth, payroll employment, the unemployment rate, core and headline inflation measures such as the consumer price index and the personal consumption expenditures index, household savings rates, and consumer borrowing trends. These variables inform decisions by fiscal authorities and the Federal Reserve and shape projections for tax receipts and budget planning.
Observers also noted the political dimension. Administrations often highlight strong consumer metrics to argue for the effectiveness of economic policy, while opponents emphasize distributional outcomes and costs borne by lower-income families. Media coverage and public statements from the White House framed the weekend as evidence of positive momentum, while some research and reporting drew attention to pockets of stress in household budgets.
Context on measurement and interpretation
Measuring whether holiday spending represents a genuine improvement in living standards requires parsing nominal and real values. Nominal spending totals rise with both greater quantities bought and with higher prices. Real purchasing power depends on wages adjusted for inflation and on how price changes affect different categories of spending.
Inflation measures differ in scope. The consumer price index tracks out-of-pocket household prices for a broad basket, while the personal consumption expenditures index, the Federal Reserve’s preferred gauge, weights components differently and can present a different pace of change. Wage measures also vary, from average hourly earnings to median usual weekly earnings, and each conveys a different view of how broadly pay gains are shared.
Household balance sheets matter as well. Trends in the savings rate, credit card balances, and overall household debt levels influence whether consumers can sustain higher spending. If households rely on increased credit or savings runs to finance consumption, short-term GDP gains may not translate into long-term improvement in living standards.
Analysis
Strong holiday sales provide a short-term lift to growth and can improve near-term fiscal receipts. But for governance and policy, the key question is whether the inputs that drive spending are durable and widely shared. Durable gains come from broad-based wage growth, sustained employment gains, and stable or falling inflation. Temporary gains come from one-off shifts in saving, heavier credit use, or timing effects in purchases.
For policymakers overseeing fiscal and monetary levers, discernment is essential. Overstating transient sales as proof of lasting economic improvement can lead to complacency in addressing structural issues such as housing affordability, regional labor market disparities, and rising out-of-pocket costs for health care. Conversely, ignoring clear signs of strengthening labor markets risks undermining confidence. The incoming months of employment and price data will be decisive for assessing whether holiday spending represents a durable expansion in household purchasing power or a cyclical bump with limited policy significance.
